Year to Year Pace Improvements
Uncategorized| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| Little Patuxent River (Feb) | 13:28/mi | 13:19/mi | 11:26/mi |
| Cherry Blossom 10 Miler (April) | N/A | 11:39/mi | 11:04 |
| Downtown Columbia 10K (April) | 11:33/mi | 10:57/mi | 09:26 |
| Half Marathon* (Spring/ Summer) | 12:52/mi | 11:06/mi | |
| Octoberfest 5 Miler (October) | 10:38/mi | 10:03/mi | 08:36 |
*I did not run the same Half Marathon Course in 2021 and 2022. In 2021 I ran at the Anchorage RunFest in August, and 2022 I ran at the Edinburgh Marathon Festival in May.
Little Patuxent River Race – This is a trail race with some difficult incline, and sharp decline, which makes for a difficult course. I do not expect to be running the same pace for this as the road races. I am pleasantly surprised and delighted with my significant improvement in 2023 compared to the previous years. From 2021 to 2022 I saw the least improvement in this race, so I am really excited to see the improvements I make for the other races this year.
Note: This race is not “certified” and the accuracy of distance is not 100%. It has been advertised, as a 10K, and only this year did they make a note that it is actually 6.55mi. Some of the years the route changed a bit, and routes prior to 2022 may have been different. Route for 2022 and 2023 seemed to be the same, and 6.55mi.
Month to Month Improvements
February 2021 to April 2021 Improvement – I saw a 01:55min/mi pace improvement from February to April for my 10K pace. (This does not factor in differences in course.)
In October 2021 my 5 Mile Pace was 00:55min/mi faster than my 10K pace in April of 2021.
From February 2022 to April 2022 my pace improved a whopping 02:22min/mi. March and April 2022 were my highest mileage months, and I am sure that is one of the contributing factors for my pace improving significantly. Although the improvement seen here is significant. I think its also important to point out that from April 2021 to April 2022, which may be a more accurate comparison since was the same course was only a 00:36min/mi improvement. Yet, if we look at the February 2021 to February 2022 Net Improvement, which was prior to my high mileage month, my improvement was only 00:09. 00:36min compared to 00:09 is a great improvement. (Predictions entered in light pink italics)
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| February to April Improvement | 01:55min/mi | 02:22min/mi | 02:00 |
| April to October Improvement | 00:55min/mi | 00:54min/mi | 00:50 |
If I see similar Improvement month to month this year as previous years, can I predict my April 10K pace? A 02:00min/mi improvement would result in a pace of 09:26min/mi. Which would be a Year to Year Pace improvement of 1:31, which is less than the Net Improvement of 01:53min/mi I had for the Little Patuxent Race from 2022 to 2023.
Net Improvement in Pace Year to Year
| Pace Improvement from 2021 to 2022 | Pace Improvement from 2022 to 2023 | |
| Little Patuxent River (Feb) | 00:09 min/mi | 01:53 min/mi |
| Cherry Blossom 10 Miler (April) | N/A | 00:35 min/mi |
| Downtown Columbia 10K (April) | 00:36 min/mi | 01:31 min/mi |
| Half Marathon | 01:46 min/mi | |
| Octoberfest 5 Miler | 00:35 min/mi | 01:27 min/mi |
Net Improvement for Downtown Columbia 10K in 2022 was almost the same as Net Improvements for Octoberfest 5 Miler in 2022. I wonder if these improvements will be similar in 2023.
Can I Predict my Pace Improvements based on the 1 Race I ran in 2023?
See Complete list of Race Results here